Has solar payback got better or worse since 2022?
Short answer
Mixed. Hardware and installation prices have fallen, with MCS reporting average certified systems just over 7,000 pounds in 2025, but export rates and some import prices have eased since the 2022 to 2023 crisis peaks. The Energy Saving Trust's July 2026 figures give 9 to 12 years for panels with export payments.
Last checked 24 September 2026 · 1 source
In more detail
- 2022-23: high import and export prices shortened paybacks sharply (field example 7-10 years estimate including battery).
- 2025-26: cheaper systems, typical SEG ~12p (EST), payback 9-12 years (EST, July 2026 prices).
The facts, dated
- 01EST payback range across four UK locations (July 2026 prices) — 9-12 years
market_data · GB · checked 24 September 2026 · Energy Saving Trust
What we saw in the field
[QA review 2026-09-24] H-8 AGREES: EST 9-12 yrs (Jul 2026), Outgoing Octopus 15p->12p (1 Mar 2026), MCS average system ~£500 cheaper in 2025. | Earlier notes: Homeowner's statement that payback is 'less favourable now as export rates fell though hardware got cheaper' is plausible but not directly testable without 2022 EST figures.
Sources
- Energy Saving Trust — energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/solar-panels/
Last checked: 24 September 2026